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Where Have All the Dragons Gone?
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(October 1, 2005) In the midst of our current gold rally, and concurrent with the introduction of the 2006 Australian Lunar Series Dog coins, the year 2000 1-ounce gold Dragon has taken off on a trajectory all it own. What is the Lunar Series with the Dragon out of sight?
A hectic gold market brings many changes - new buyers and sellers emerge, and seasoned participants in the market start to consider their position in a new light. When gold breaks out of a narrow trading range, such as the $415-$455 range we experienced from October of 2004 until September of this year, excitement can take over in the flush of higher prices.

Fans of this website know that we have presented the Australian Lunar Series Gold coins ever since we launched this site in the year 2000. The Lunar series offers a rare combination of reasonable premiums over the spot gold prices, with an interesting theme, well executed, in a twelve year program from 1996 to 2007. The animal theme has been a huge hit in Asia and the US, and the Australian Lunar Series is the most widely collected gold bullion product since the Pandas had their heyday back in the 1980s.

The key to the series has been the Dragon 1-ounce coin. The Dragon was the first issue to sell out, and since then its premium has done nothing but increase. This past month alone saw 1-ounce gold Dragon price increases of over $100 in a hot gold market, and supplies have dwindled as sellers are few.

Although we have sufficient supplies to fill the orders that we have taken so far, the single Dragon ounce gold coins are in tight supply.

So if any of our customers or readers have gold 1-ounce Dragons from the Lunar series that they wish to sell, we ask that they please contact us with any they could offer. We will buy them outright for immediate payment, or holders of Dragons might consider trading them for lower-premium gold, silver, palladium, or platinum products.

We will continue to support this series. Right now, that means we are paying outrageous prices for the year 2000 1-ounce gold Dragons. Not necessarily due to our perception of the 'value' of them, but because they're 'hot.' We are gold dealers, not investors, and we like the action of this market.

Remember that, as with any hot market, there is a downside. For instance, at some price point, the Dragon starts to seem too expensive to potential buyers (it’s now our priciest 1-ounce gold product by a long shot). Also, higher prices increase the possibility that large hoards of the Dragons will come onto the market, potentially pushing down the price. But the biggest threat from higher Dragon prices is that the set becomes too expensive relative to gold spot.

The fundamental attraction of the Lunar Series for the collector/investor has always been that it is primarily an investment in gold bullion. If the set loses that attribute, then interest in the series will fade.

After all, if you can buy a 2-ounce gold Dragon from the same Australian Lunar Series for less than $1,000 (and those are available), at some point chasing a $700+ 1-ounce Dragon doesn’t seem like such a good idea.

 

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