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Contributing to this
pause is that tax season generally puts a hold on potential
major purchases. And here in the Sonoran desert, snowbirds begin
their seasonal out-migration this time of year, hightailing it
back home to do their taxes, and await what passes for Spring in
their frozen homelands.
And with the gold market suddenly gone cold, our phones, after
signaling non-stop action going back to September of 2008, are
almost silent. Which is a shame, as bullion products have flowed
into dealer’s inventories, and the yellow metal itself has
suffered a better than 12% price haircut over the past few
weeks. In other words, it’s probably the best time to buy gold
in over a year.
The fall-off in bullion business has run concurrently with the
recent new-found life in the equities market, as the
heart-stopping draining of trillions of dollars worth of stock
values that we’ve seen since late last year seems to have halted
about a month ago.
Nothing goes straight, down or up, so it is a bounce we are
currently having in the stock market. Stocks have had a
spectacular run-up since the second week of March, and a few
questions about animals come to mind:
Is the damage of the bear market over? Do we smell a bull coming
our way? Or are we seeing a dead cat?
At any rate, the frantic scramble for physical gold has abated
in small part, back to approximately the heightened but not
maniacal level we started to see when the phrase ‘credit crunch’
was first uttered in September of 2007.
But if the gold world gives us a break in the action, we’ll
certainly take it. After the last seven month’s worth of long
days and working weekends, we could use it, to be sure.
Barron’s this week ran a two-page article focusing on an
Amex-listed gold exploration outfit known as the Tanzanian
Royalty Exploration.
As Vito Racanelli explains in his article, the business model
for this little company is to acquire properties with promising
mineralization, perform the drilling and exploration of those
properties, with the idea of selling off promising sites to
larger mining firms for development. In other words, to explore
for royalty arrangements in Tanzania – thus its name, Tanzanian
Royalty Exploration.
Mr. Racanelli didn’t seem to think much of the firm’s prospects:
$370 million market cap, $1.2 million in the bank, no active
mineral production (and therefore no income) at all, and no
proven gold resources on its books. As a matter of fact,
Barron’s allowed him two full pages of space for an article
about a very slightly-capitalized firm which in eight years
seems to have raised millions of dollars from investors, with
nary a gram of gold to show for it. The only story seems to be
that its chairman has quietly reduced his stake in the firm over
the past few years.
So why did Barrons and Mr. Racanelli even bother to trot out a
boring story about such a non-player in the world of gold
production? Mostly, because TRE’s chairman and chief executive
is that hoariest of goldbugs, Jim Sinclair, the media’s
perennial go-to guy for a bullish sound bite about gold, going
back to the days when Krugerrrands were a novelty.
The article compares TRE to other gold exploration companies by
the numbers, and finds it wanting: “Most of the other
gold-exploration companies have more cash on their balance
sheets and more gold than Tanzanian Royalty. But the market
values them much more cheaply than Tanzanian.”
Mr. Racanelli’s two-pager falls short of being a credible expose
of anything untoward, and you have to wonder what Barron’s had
in mind in publishing it. Unless, of course, they simply hold a
grudge against this particular gold guru. The most succinct
thing they have to say is this:
“Without Sinclair, it is likely TRE’s market cap and share price
could be significantly less golden.”
Which can hardly be counted as any sort of stunning insight
about Tanzanian Royalty Exploration and its famously bombastic
spokesperson.
But on to bigger issues. Mainly, is a lack of borrowing really
what ails our economy?
In both the mainstream press, and much of whatever you would
call its alternate, dire emphasis is placed on the
unavailability of credit in the US, as if that were a bad thing.
Our big banks are receiving massive infusions of funds, it is
said, in fervent hopes that they will act as conduits and loan
all those bucks to worthy businesses and consumers. But, we
might ask, for what?
The consumer, for the most part, has enough debt already, thank
you. For most everyone who purchased a home in the last six
years or so, they are already carrying more debt than their
mortgaged ‘assets’ are worth, so how does is come to be
universally agreed upon that this person needs to borrow more?
On what collateral? On what implied future income stream? And to
what end?
After all, it was debt, staggering towers of debt, debt
expressed in creative ways heretofore unknown, that got us into
this pickle in the first place – so how can more debt be the
cure?
It’s not like the market is telling us that our country is full
of worthy borrowers, whose reasonable hopes of expanding a
business or just buying stuff to play with is being stymied by
lack of funds. If that un-tapped market existed, you would see
new banks and loan offices opening on every corner to profit
from that unmet need.
In short, that’s how capitalism works. And from looking at the
swelling amount of US investment capital currently floating
around listlessly in low-paying money market funds, it’s obvious
that there is plenty of available money out there, just waiting
its chance at a good opportunity.
As a matter of fact, that is the central and best argument
against this whole process of rescuing, bailing out, and
re-liquifying the Citicorps, Bank of Americas, AIGs, and General
Electric Capitals of our country – why not just let them suffer
the consequences of their own bad judgment and go bankrupt?
Other banks, and other investor- backed enterprises, will surely
take their place.
Do we as Americans hold in our hearts so little faith in the
resilience of capitalism that we don’t think that a thousand new
institutions would bloom to take the place of fallen financial
Goliaths, provide capital where warranted, and be a safe
depository for invested funds?
Such a free-market outcome would certainly be healthier than the
current raft of prevarications we’re having to abide from The
Powers That Speak, such as the re-branding of what are known to
one and all as ‘toxic’ assets, i.e., assets that aren’t assets
at all, into something called “legacy assets,” As if these poor
assets, alas, are a legacy that we will always have with us.
Sheesh.
There can be no doubt that the sequential multi-trillion-dollar
bailout of the mighty and well-connected will bring many
unfavorable, unintended, and simply unfair outcomes. But so
misguided, poorly thought-out, and philosophically indefensible
are these mutually back- scratching gifts from the supposed
guardians of the public purse to the undeserving. that the
public defense of these measures requires the demise of plainly
spoken truth.
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