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All in all, world financial markets were put to the test during
this unsettling, gut-churning five-day period. It started with
the US markets closed for MLK Day while, unbeknownst to the
world, the French bank Societe Generale dumped unwanted European
stock positions with both hands, leading to a massive decline in
Euro equity markets and a free-fall in precious metals prices.
Gold fell to the $850s level amidst the European market carnage
on Monday. At weeks’ end, it would rally to over $920.00 during
Friday’s session.
On Tuesday, anticipation ran high as to how US stocks would
react when markets re-opened in the US, with futures index
trading giving indications that stocks would open enormously
lower in sympathy with Monday’s losses in Europe. Ben Bernanke
conferred on the eve of the crisis-to-be, and decided to take
dramatic steps before markets opened on Tuesday.
At approximately 8AM Tuesday the Fed announced a ¾% cut in the
fed funds rate, an unprecedented move. It had been common
understanding that a half-point cut would most likely be
announced at next week’s Fed meeting, but making the cut 75
basis points ahead of the market’s opening after a long US
weekend was certainly a dramatic move. Whether the cut was
necessary to avert panic, or was a sign of panic itself, is a
question that will long be argued.
Tuesday saw slight losses in US stocks, but the 75-point rate
cut certainly prevented a true rout from occurring. Gold also
regained its footing, trading up into the $880s. European stocks
lost more ground. Asian and Indian markets suffered losses
greater than on Monday. Hong Kong had its worst trading day
ever, and the Mumbai market had to be shut down with losses
exceeding 10% and no stability in sight.
On Wednesday US officials were apprised by the French that one
Jerome Kerviel, a junior trader with the bank Societe Generale,
had somehow evaded limit controls and amassed a $75 billion long
position in European stock indexes without the bank’s knowledge,
and that the bank was some $7.2 billion in the hole from Mr.
Kerviel’s antics. Further, the bank had been frantically selling
out this position in Euro stocks all week, no doubt weakening
that market to an unknowable degree.
Yet US stocks rallied on Wednesday, partially due to a scheme to
rescue troubled bond insurer Ambac. The turn-around was swift
and dramatic, with the S&P rallying 5% before day’s end.
On Thursday the cat was out of the bag, and the world learned of
the existence of yet another example of that modern archetype
known as ‘rogue trader,’ this time SocGen employee Jerome
Kerviel. The revelation brought up an interesting point about
the Fed action: If the unwinding of Mr. Kerviel’s
surreptitiously accumulated positions caused SocGen to sell
heavily in to the European markets on Monday, thus causing a
Euro stock rout, followed by Ben Bernanke’s dawn announcement on
Tuesday of a surprise 75-point Fed funds rate cut, then could it
be said that the Fed was panicked by the actions of junior
trader in France?
The idea that the Fed was ‘flummoxed’ by the actions of a
31-year old Frenchman that no one had ever heard of made for a
great story on Thursday and Friday. Editorialists and
commentators had a field day. The truth is that the Fed did not
know of Mr Kievel’s existence when they (read: Ben Bernanke)
decided on the emergency rate cut.
What the Fed did know before dawn on Tuesday was that world
stocks had gotten hammered over the previous 36 hours, and that
US stocks were set up for a big-time fall on Tuesday. Fifteen
minutes before the US markets opened, the rate cut was
announced.
However you spin it, it wouldn’t have happened were it not for
Jerome Kerviel, heretofore unknown junior trader at a French
bank.
Meanwhile, back at the precious metals markets, gold rallied
some 8% from Monday’s trough to Friday’s peak. Friday also
brought news of extensive mine closings in South Africa due to a
power shortage. Propelled by the news, platinum gained some $70
on Friday to a new record price, and rhodium topped $7,000 for
the first time ever. Authorities say it may be weeks before
production is restored.
Gold closed on Monday 1/28/08 at $927.10, completing the
trifecta of all-time record high precious metals prices for that
day. In Washington, a stimulus package involving free money for
every person and corporation through the generosity of the
Treasury is receiving bipartisan support, and a Presidential
race is providing daily entertainment.
And in local Arizona news, there’s a football game scheduled
this Sunday in Glendale.
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