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This much is true: The
US Mint temporarily suspended 1-ounce gold Eagle sales on 8/14
(resuming them on 8/26), yesterday the Rand Refinery in South
Africa ran out of Krugerrands, Austrian Philharmonics are
nowhere to be seen in the US, the new 2008 five-nines (,99999
purity) Maple Leaf is for the time being unavailable, palladium
Maples are not currently being produced, and 2008 Isle of Man
gold Cats will probably never arrive on our shores. Even
ordinary 1-ounce and ten-ounce gold bars from Pamp Suisse and
Credit Suisse are in tight supply.
What on Earth is happening to choices and availability in the
gold market?
First off, demand for physical gold bullion products in the US
has surged to extraordinary levels in the past few weeks. Gold’s
recent plunge from $986 on July 15th to $786.50 on August 15th
was very perplexing to US gold investors. Granted, oil prices
were down sharply during that period, and the dollar
strengthened significantly against the euro, pound, and yen. But
why would gold prices plummet some $200 in four weeks time when
the fundamental case for gold seems, if anything, stronger than
ever?
In that atmosphere, every U.S. gold bullion dealer saw a surge
in demand at these new lower price levels. And since there is
only a finite amount of product on the shelves of retailers,
distributors, mints and refiners at any given time, available
gold bullion supplies quickly disappear. That doesn’t mean that
gold is any scarcer – it just means that it takes time to
convert gold scrap, bullion bars, and newly mined dory bars into
the smaller, finished gold bullion bars and coins that are most
desired by investors.
Here’s how the process works: The US Mint buys gold in the open
market to have made into gold Eagles and Buffaloes. In no case
is the Mint using up our gold reserves, or dipping into Fort
Knox to sell off the national treasure. The Mint simply buys
refined gold and sells gold bullion product in equal measure
every week, as it is required to do in order to sustain the gold
bullion coin programs that Congress authorized.
For instance, in 2007 the US Mint filled orders for some 140,000
1- ounce gold Eagles, and that number was produced with no real
production glitches. But as they say, that was then, and this is
now. During this recent surge in gold bullion demand, the Mint
sold 80,000 such coins in August 2008 alone - more than half of
what they sold all last year. Yet that is still not enough, and
the Mint is having to allocate (‘ration’) coins to its
distributors for as long as demand exceeds current production
capacity.
For our part, even during this recent pinch we have yet to run
out, even for a day, of U.S. gold Eagles, Buffaloes,
Krugerrands, .9999 Maple Leafs, Kangaroos, Pandas, or 2008 Lunar
Mouses. Over the years we have built good relations with the
distributors that handle both government coins and private
refinery bullion, relationships which ensure that, even when
supplies are tight, we have a steady stream of product coming
our way almost every day.
So if you are looking to buy gold bullion for immediate
delivery, give us a call.
However, it is true that certain items are not currently
available. For instance, it has been months since we have had
gold Philharmonics. US distributors for the Austrian Mint have
simply not had any in this country. Whether the gold
Philharmonics will return to our shores with the issuance of
2009-dated coins, we do not know at this time.
The 2008 Canadian five-nines limited edition gold Maple is also
currently out of stock, both on our shelves and from the Royal
Canadian Mint. We expect further supplies in two or three weeks,
but as usual, we do not take orders for product unless or until
we have it on hand or firmly scheduled for delivery.
Also, the Royal Canadian Mint is not producing palladium Maples
at this time. We are hopeful that they will restart production
before long, as lower palladium prices have brought on a huge
increase in investor demand. But we have a good supply on hand
(and more in the pipeline) of the popular Pamp Suisse palladium
bars in both 1- ounce and ten-ounce sizes.
And sometimes, a gold bullion product line is dropped simply for
lack of serious interest. Today, this is what has happened to
the 2008 Isle of Man “Cat” series of gold bullion coins, for the
simple reason that there is currently no U.S. distributor
stocking Cats.
Why? Well, not to pick on Cats for any reason, but they have
always been more of a collector’s coin rather than a bulk
bullion item. Sales of Cats are usually onesie-twosie kinds of
deals.
Back in 2001 when gold was $260, distributors were shelling out
a bit over $130,000 to procure 500 ounces of gold Cats. Today,
that same 500 ounce minimum order would entail a capital outlay
of over $400,000, paid up front, for a product which typically
sells in dribs and drabs over the length of its year of issue.
Those of you who follow our Specials Page know that for the past
three years we have handled distributor close-outs on various
sizes of Cats at year-end, often at prices considerably below
the premiums that were paid to stock them in the first place.
After a while, those same distributors have concluded that Cats
are just not worth the investment to carry.
As always, we do our best to carry the full line of gold bullion
available in the U.S. We regret it whenever choices are reduced,
because among the modern bullion gold coins are some of the most
beautiful and irresistible products that we could possibly offer
our customers.
And we certainly don’t want rumors of shortages to dampen your
enthusiasm for putting aside some of our favorite shiny yellow
metal, in your favorite form(s), at today's more favorable
prices.
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