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Since its formation in
January of 1999 by financial commentator Bill Murphy and editor
Chris Powell, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has brought
attention to the gold market, most notably that market's
inability to rise above $300 for any length of time over the
past two years. Some see an international conspiracy to keep the
price of gold below the $300 level. We refer you to the website
at GATA.org for their view of this market manipulation.
There is no denying that much of their argument is sound. Today,
gold has many enemies, and very few friends. The number of
entities short the metal is huge. Even gold mining concerns, who
you would think would be rooting for gold to go up in price
(their own product!), have sold gold in the futures markets to
lock in their profits.
GATA's point is that many players in the gold market would like
to see gold prices stay down, they're acting in collusion, and
that's a conspiracy.
Conspiracy theory probably has a lot of appeal for the person
who had the bad luck to be a 'goldbug' back when conventional
wisdom was that stocks ('paper assets') were dead and tangible
assets were all the rage. Take a moment and consider the plight
of this longstanding gold-owner. Perhaps he bought in 1980 when
gold was over $800 per ounce. Maybe even later, say 1982,
forsaking stocks when the Dow was below 1,000, and instead
buying gold at nearly $600. While his friends who bought common
stocks at that time are comfortably retired, and often invite
him out on their yachts, our poor gold-owner has seen his assets
depreciate by half over that 17-year span.
What's the poor gold-owner to do? Curse his luck? Take
responsibility for a bad call? Blame himself for poor timing?
Not likely in this day and age - it's got to be someone else's
fault! Who did this to me? I should be prospering too, just like
those common shareholders! My gold (or gold shares) should have
gone up also! It would have, too, except for...a conspiracy!
We are certainly sympathetic to such a cause, within limits. On
the one hand, our gold position is substantial, and any increase
in gold prices ostensibly benefits our company. However, lower
gold prices have caused our sales of gold bullion to skyrocket
over the past ten months, due to increased U.S. demand for gold
at the sub-$300 level. And we feel there are many more
intelligent people of means who should and will buy physical
gold insurance at these current low levels. Will they still buy
when spot is $350, $400, $500+? Maybe not.
To quote the history published on their website GATA.org, "The
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee was organized in January 1999
as a Delaware corporation to advocate and undertake litigation
against illegal collusion to control the price and supply of
certain financial securities, particularly securities involving
gold."
In pursuit of these goals, GATA has retained Philadelphia
anti-trust and securities law firm Berger & Montague to look
into market manipulation. What exactly can be accomplished, no
one knows. But as Reuters quoted one gold dealer, "There are a
lot of mysteries in the gold market and it might very well be a
court or discovery action might turn up some interesting
things."
So what's our view on this? Well, there is certainly some
interesting reading on the GATA website. The supposedly shocking
revelation seems to be that enormous economic entities are
opposed to any rise in the price of gold. You can call it a
conspiracy, but that's how markets work - opposing forces push
prices up and down. Gold's no different from any other market,
it just happens to be a huge market with huge players.
Naming those huge players as part of a cabal against gold gives
the gold market a real mysterious "X-Files" kind of flavor. And
people love to read about conspiracies. The trouble with this
alleged conspiracy is that it has to involve at least the Fed,
the Treasury, Clinton and other heads of state, the bullion
banks, the central banks, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the Bank
of England, many hedge funds and brokerage houses, Homestake,
Barrick, Anglogold, the IMF, the Swiss electorate, etc., etc.
Logistically, getting that whole crowd to act in concert would
be about as difficult as re-staging the D-Day invasion.
And: the idea of having lawyers representing the poor,
downtrodden gold-owners of the world in a U.S. court of law to
try to prove this conspiracy is ludicrous on the face of it. But
legal credibility is not GATA's real aim. For instance, before
they hired real lawyers, the website of the Gold Anti-Trust
Action committee defined "anti-trust" by quoting the
always-authoritative World Book Encyclopedia.
No, the real goal of GATA is just to move gold prices higher. Or
should we say, conspiring to move gold prices higher. Quoting
the website: "When, through our lawsuit, we are able to show how
short in gold even one major financial institution really is,
other institutions will buy gold in quantity, knowing the short
position in gold is too large to close without causing a
substantial rise in the price of gold. Then the gold collusion
game will be over."
Whether you think GATA's drum-beating is the music of a
righteous cause, or just a whiny noise, will depend upon your
view of how markets operate.
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